比尔·克林顿过去时常谈到要在21世纪构筑一座桥梁，奥巴马总统也不时提到要奠下“新基础”（new foundation）。不过，克林顿总对桥梁另一方的土地是何种情形含糊其辞，奥巴马也让人对新基础之上修建的是何种建筑感到模棱两可。
对未来的表述之所以如此模糊，是因为没有人能清楚地知道，美国在2030年或是2050年会成为哪种类型的国家，也没有人可以给美国未来的经济特性下一个明确的定义。
在思考该问题的过程中，从这个角度或许可以在开始阶段起到帮助启发的作用。五百年前，农业是一项主要的经济活动；一百年前则是工业生产；当然，我们现在生活在一个信息时代，创新力和创造力是经济增长的引擎。
哈佛大学的霍华德·加德纳（Howard Gardner）曾经构想了一幅合成图景来描绘具有非凡创造性的人：她来自一个小地方，有些远离权势和影响力的中心。作为一个年轻人，她觉得自己已经长大成熟，周围的小圈子不再适合她。于是，她搬到一座大都市，找到了一群和自己志趣相投的人，并且参加了一个小组，创造出一些让人惊艳的东西。
然后，在某个时候，她发现了自身存在的问题，这一问题与她所在团体里其他人涉及的问题有关联，但又有所不同。她突然停下来并且奋力挣扎，最后带着新生事物脱颖而出。她将这新事物带回到她的圈子里，接受测试、打磨和改进。
这则合成故事的主旨是要告诉我们，创造力不是一个孤立的过程，它会在网络之中诞生，也会在具有天赋的人汇聚一堂，思维系统和心理状态相互融合的时候产生。
现在，设想你就是这个在2010年，2025年或者2050年三个时间段里具有创造性的人。你如今居住在乌克兰或是肯尼亚，亦或是国内外其他地方的一个小镇上。你渴望逃离这里，然后去到另一个地方。在那里，人们聚集在一起思考着你此时正在思考的事情，创造着你想要创造的事物。
如果你热衷时尚，你也许会去巴黎；如果你喜爱工程，德国或许是你的目的地。但如果兴趣广泛，我想你会计划去美国。
你想去美国是因为英语已经成为了一种全球通用语言。你想去那里是因为美国的大学在世界上领导着各项研究，并且吸引着众多来自地球上各个角落里最优秀的人才。
你想去那里是因为美国的机构相对来说较为廉洁，知识产权受到保护，而且有大量风险投资基金。
此外，美国还是一个全球性的国家。生活在那里的人们和整个世界都有割舍不断的联系。比起中国社会，这个由移民构成的国家更加具有民族融合性。
你也注意到，美国拥有适宜的社会网络，既变通灵活又严谨认真。一项又一项研究表明，美国社会具备高度社会信誉度，美国人组建了规模庞大、高效能、不为裙带关系所束缚的机构。各项研究还得出，美国人没有等级之分。被抚养长大的美国孩子会挑战父母的权威，而美国各类机构的下属成员也可以相对自由地挑战他们的上级。在这个国家，你不大可能被迫屈服于权威。
你可以从这则故事中了解到，21世纪的经济强国看上去不再像20世纪的经济强国。有关新纪元最重要的依据在于创造力需要中心枢纽，信息网络需要连接点。一个能让自己成为世界网络中心的国家必将具有强劲巨大的经济和政治实力。
安妮-玛丽·斯劳特（Anne-Marie Slaughter，现已在美国国务院担任政策规划司司长）在2009年曾为《外交事务》杂志（Foreign Affairs）写过一篇评论，她在文中叙述了这一新形势的合理性："在一个遍布网络的世界里，问题（的解决）不再依赖于（具有）相对的权势，而取决于在愈加密集的全球网络里占据中心地位。"
斯劳特的这篇评论取名为《美国的优势》（America's Edge），标题设计恰如其分。不过，美国民众现在正处于一个压抑的心理状态，随着中国和印度的快速崛起，有将近三分之二的美国人认为他们的国家正在衰落。
实际上，美国恰好成为处在十字路口上的国家，也恰好位于全球网络的中心，它促进了合理类型网络的发展。美国尽其所能做好一切来加强各种联系：为研究提供资金，吸引科学家参与其中；改善基础设施方便出行；调整移民制度广纳贤才；改革税收吸引成功人士；使大学生出国留学深造成为常态；充分利用赴海外服役的数百万老兵所具备的优势。
国家拥有最密集和最广阔的网络，将开创这个时代。因此，我们没有什么理由感到悲观。
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英文原文：
Bill Clinton used to talk about building a bridge to the 21st century. President Obama talks about laying down a “new foundation.” But Clinton was always vague about what the land on the other side of that bridge was going to look like, and Obama is vague about what edifice is going to go on top of that foundation.
They are vague because nobody is clear about what sort of country America is going to be in 2030 or 2050. Nobody has quite defined America’s coming economic identity.
In thinking about this question, it probably helps to start at the beginning. Five hundred years ago, agriculture was the major economic activity. One hundred years ago, it was industrial production. Now, of course, we’re living in an information age. Innovation and creativity are the engines of economic growth.
Howard Gardner of Harvard once put together a composite picture of the extraordinarily creative person: She comes from a little place somewhat removed from the center of power and influence. As an adolescent, she feels herself outgrowing her own small circle. She moves to a metropolis and finds a group of people who share her passions and interests. She gets involved with a team to create something amazing.
Then, at some point, she finds her own problem, which is related to and yet different from the problems that concern others in her group. She breaks off and struggles and finally emerges with some new thing. She brings it back to her circle. It is tested, refined and improved.
The main point in this composite story is that creativity is not a solitary process. It happens within networks. It happens when talented people get together, when idea systems and mentalities merge.
Now imagine you are this creative person in the year 2010, 2025 or 2050. You are living in some small town in Ukraine or Kenya or some other place, foreign or domestic. You long to break out and go to a place where people are gathering to think about the things you are thinking about, creating the things you want to create.
If you are passionate about fashion, maybe you will go to Paris. If it’s engineering, maybe it’ll be Germany. But if you are passionate about many other spheres, I suspect you’ll want to be in America.
You’ll want to be in the U.S. because English has become the global language. You’ll want to come because American universities lead the world in research and draw many of the best minds from all corners of the earth.
You’ll want to be there because American institutions are relatively free from corruption. Intellectual property is protected. Huge venture capital funds already exist.
Moreover, the United States is a universal nation. There are already people there with connections all over the world. A nation of immigrants is more permeable than say, Chinese society.
You also observe that America hosts the right kind of networks — ones that are flexible and intense. Study after study suggests that America is one of those societies with high social trust. Americans build large, efficient organizations that are not bound by the circles of kinship and clan. Study after study finds that Americans are not hierarchical. American children are raised to challenge their parents. American underlings are relatively free to challenge their bosses. In this country you’re less likely to have to submit to authority.
From this story you can see that economic power in the 21st century is not going to look like economic power in the 20th century. The crucial fact about the new epoch is that creativity needs hubs. Information networks need junction points. The nation that can make itself the crossroads to the world will have tremendous economic and political power.
In 2009, Anne-Marie Slaughter, now director of policy planning at the State Department, wrote an essay for Foreign Affairs in which she laid out the logic of this new situation: “In a networked world, the issue is no longer relative power, but centrality in an increasingly dense global web.”
Slaughter’s essay was titled “America’s Edge.” That is apt. Americans are now in a depressed state of mind. As China and India rise, nearly two-thirds of Americans believe their nation is in decline.
In fact, the U.S. is well situated to be the crossroads nation. It is well situated to be the center of global networks and to nurture the right kinds of networks. Building that America means doing everything possible to thicken connections: finance research to attract scientists; improve infrastructure to ease travel; fix immigration to funnel talent; reform taxes to attract superstars; make study abroad a rite of passage for college students; take advantage of the millions of veterans who have served overseas.
The nation with the thickest and most expansive networks will define the age. There’s no reason to be pessimistic about that.
*原文载于《纽约时报》文，郭承斌译
