金正日近来很少出行。68岁的他尚没有从两年前的中风完全恢复过来。他的国家依然贫困。有分析家甚至警告说，朝鲜从上世纪90年代便爆发的饥荒，已经杀死了金家王朝独裁治下的上万臣民。世界希望他能够重返朝鲜核问题会谈，但金正日却鲜有兴致。上个月韩国海军船只遭到袭击，致使46名船员丧生，而朝鲜更被怀疑是幕后的黑手——这明显不是金正日向六方会谈热情张开双臂的信号。相反，他将注意力放在了国内，试图令他的儿子，28岁的金正银世袭朝鲜领袖的地位。而朝鲜以外的世界，更是对后者知之甚少。
不过金正日却搭乘了一辆17节车厢的豪华列车，在2006年之后向中国迈出了第一步。5月3日星期一，金正日到访中国东北港口城市大连。外界相信他会在周三前往北京，同中国最高领导人展开会晤。
中朝两国有很多议程需要讨论，但金正日不太可能会看到东道主的好脸色。从安全角度上看，东北亚地区长久以来由美国及其盟友所主导，因此朝鲜成为了中国在东北亚地区的重要缓冲国。基于此点，中国的基本利益自朝鲜战争停战57年以来便一直保持稳定。最近，北京方面更是寻求进入朝鲜的矿产和商品领域的途径，好进一步帮助中国保持经济持续增长。至于过去几年里，中国是否就朝鲜重返六方会谈施加了压力，就要仁者见仁，智者见智了。
美国的盟友都是一根线上的蚂蚱，正常情况下，这些议题也会引领盟国之间的讨论。但对于双方来说，问题在于目前不是正常情况。3月26日，韩国海军护卫舰天安号（Cheonan）在韩国海域的沉没使得朝鲜伟大领袖和中国后方关系微妙。首尔相信舰只被朝鲜鱼雷击中，但并没有把话摆开说死。至于平壤方面，则是拒绝做出任何回应。
尽管行程早已策划了数月，但在金正日在爆发后这么短的时间就访问中国，也使得韩国大为光火。韩国总统李明博周二在汉城发表讲话，当提及朝韩关系时，李明博明确表示，天安事件压倒一切。韩国已经召集了一只国际调查小组来寻找舰船沉没原因的确凿证据，小组成员分别来自美国、澳大利亚和瑞典。一旦掌握证据，李明博说，韩国将采取“明确和严厉的措施来对付肇事者。”他补充说，军舰沉没不是简单的事故。“事件发生之后，我立即预感到这是一个严重的国际问题，设计朝鲜半岛南北关系。”他说。
这也便是北京不高兴的原因。首尔汉阳大学（Hanyang University in Seoul）教授柳世姬（Yoo Se-hee）指出，“加剧朝韩紧张关系，并给朝鲜的体系与安全带来外部压力”的原因主要有两个方面。第一点我们已经得知。而韩国很有可能处于愤怒，会敦促盟友美国加入自己，并在多国调查小组找到鱼雷残骸之后，寻求对朝鲜的惩罚性制裁。
这将北京放在了一个不太舒服的位置。毫无疑问，金正日本周已经将乞讨用的破碗掏了出来，好让他人看看自己国家的经济是多么可怕。经济基础决定上层建筑，朝鲜国内稳定的前提也是经济不能崩溃。因此即便韩国只是从对朝流动的资金援助和贸易中撤出很小一部分，中国都有可能会“替韩受过”。但是金正日可能希望保证北京会国际舆论因为天安号沉默而一片沸腾时，在联合国面前替朝鲜担下包袱，柳世姬认为。中国或多或少让平壤这个所谓的朋友拖住了后腿——现在风头不对，甚至更差。不过在在朝鲜，倒是没有好日子。现在，金正日又发出了呼唤，肯定是又在索取支持。“中国不得不处在两难境地里。”柳世姬说。虽说无法选择敌人，但可以选择朋友。为什么中国仍然将朝鲜称为朋友，甚至盟友这个问题也随着时间的流逝，令北京愈加不安。而金正日此次访华，无疑会加重这种不安。（时代周刊）
——史蒂芬·金（Stephen Kim）对本文亦有帮助
英文原文：
Kim： What the Dear Leader Wants in China——By Bill Powell Tuesday， May. 04， 2010
Kim Jong Il doesn‘t take road trips much these days. He’s 68 years old and not fully recovered from a stroke he suffered nearly two years ago. His country is as impoverished as ever， with some analysts warning of a return to the famine conditions that killed tens of thousands of the dictator‘s subjects in the late 1990s. The world wants him to return to negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program， but he has shown little interest. Indeed， though Pyongyang denies it， Kim‘s government is suspected of having blown up a South Korean naval ship just a month ago， killing 46 sailors — not exactly a signal that he desires a return to the warm embrace of the six-party talks. He is， after all， preoccupied at home， trying to arrange a succession to the leadership for his 28-year-old son， whom no one in the outside world knows anything about.
But now he has taken to the road， packing up his 17-car luxury train and making his first trip to China since 2006. He arrived on Monday， May 3， in Dalian， a northeastern port city， and is believed to be headed to Beijing for talks with China’s top leaders on Wednesday.
They have a lot to discuss， and Kim is not likely to find his hosts in a particularly good mood. China‘s basic interest since the end of the Korean War 57 years ago has been stability in the north， as North Korea is a useful buffer state in northeast Asia， a region that — in the security sphere， at least — is still dominated by the U.S. and its allies. More recently， Beijing has sought increased access to the minerals and commodities in North Korea that are useful in fueling China’s continued economic growth. And over the past several years， China has — depending on whom you believe — either exerted useful pressure on North Korea to engage in the six-party talks or just pretended to do so.
Under normal circumstances， those topics would dominate any discussions between the allies， which are， as the saying goes， as close as lips and teeth. The problem for both is that these are not normal circumstances. The March 26 sinking of the South Korean navy corvette the Cheonan in South Korean waters has made this a delicate trip for the Dear Leader and his Chinese hosts. Seoul is convinced the ship was struck by a North Korean torpedo， though it hasn‘t said so definitively or publicly yet， while Pyongyang has denied any responsibility.
South Korea is said to be annoyed， at minimum， that Beijing is even hosting Kim so soon after the alleged attack， even though the visit was planned months ago. In a speech on Tuesday in Seoul， South Korean President Lee Myung Bak made it clear that the Cheonan incident trumps everything else when it comes to inter-Korean relations. South Korea has put together an international investigative team from the U.S.， Australia， the U.K. and Sweden to seek conclusive proof of why the vessel sank. If and when that information is obtained， Lee said， Seoul will take “clear and stern measures” against those responsible. The sinking， he added， was not a simple accident. “Immediately after the incident， I had a hunch that it was a grave international issue involving the relations between the South and North，” he said.
And that’s why Beijing is unhappy. As Yoo Se-hee， a professor at Hanyang University in Seoul， points out， two of the things that cause instability in North Korea are “heightened tension between the two Koreas and external pressure on North Korea that threatens its system and security.” No. 1 is now a given， and it‘s likely that a furious South Korea will push the U.S.， an ally， to join it and seek punitive sanctions against the North if the multinational investigative team unearths the smoking torpedo.
That’s going to put Beijing in an uncomfortable spot. Kim， no doubt， has the beggar‘s cup out this week， given how dire his country’s economy is. Internal political stability requires that there be no economic collapse， so even as South Korea withdraws the small amount of monetary assistance and trade it had been allowing to flow North， China will probably step into the breach. But Kim， as Yoo points out， probably wants assurances that Beijing will carry the North‘s water at the U.N. should international heat intensify over the Cheonan sinking. China has more or less stuck by its so-called friend in Pyongyang — in bad times and in worse times. (There are no good times in North Korea.) Now Kim has come a-callin’ again， surely asking for support one more time. “That is the dilemma China has to live with，” Yoo says. They say you can‘t choose your enemies but you can choose your friends. Why the People’s Republic of China still calls North Korea a friend and an ally is an increasingly uncomfortable question for Beijing as the years go by. And it‘s in the process of becoming even more so.
— With reporting by Stephen Kim / Seoul
